The International Energy Agency (IEA) – World Energy Outlook (WEO) – has published the next annual global energy development forecast. In principle, those who do not foresee such developments for the first time, in general, their content becomes clear even on the eve of publication. The point is that the main method of prediction here is extrapolation.The IEA, as well as the other “formal agencies,” makes some changes each year. Under conditions of rapid technological advancement, such a forecasting price is not so great under the conditions of energy transformation. According to the authors, in Outlook there are many ways to develop the energy sector, from which the International Energy Agency presents two scenarios: 1. New Policy (New Policy Scenario), which is considered as a centralized scenario in the research, and 2. “Sustainable Development” is the development of the future energy sector in more active deformations (Sustainable Development Scenario).
According to the International Energy Agency, energy consumption in the world will grow slower than before, but by 2040 it will grow by 30%. Moreover, the biggest growth is expected in India. Below is the predicted change in primary energy consumption by regions.
For now, the centralized scenario for the 2017-2040 solar energy is growing annually by an average of 74 gwt.
Such a forecast by the IEA it was seemed incredible five years ago.
It should be noted that in the current year the current capacity of the solar power plants is projected at 100 GW.
Renewable energy sources will become the cheapest technology generated in many countries, and in the global energy production (under the central scenario) it will grow up to 40%: Renewable energy sources in the EU will become the main source of electricity generation since the 2030s. Among the fuels, renewable energy sources, as the best prospects, consider natural gas, the global production of which is up to 2040. will increase by 46%. The situation in the world market where the leading manufacturers of the US, Russia and Iran will not change until the end of the forecast period. Only China will most likely approach Iran. For example, natural gas production in Russia by 2040 will increase by 22.4% to 788 billion cubic meters per year. The oil era has not yet ended. Its consumption will increase due to the growing demand for cargo, aviation and petrochemical industry. The United States will become the “indisputable” global leader in the oil and gas industry, with the largest export. However, the production of oil and gas condensate in Russia will decline by almost 24%, up to 8.6 million barrels a day.
As for coal, the IEA reaffirms its previous position that global coal consumption will grow even though “the rates are steadily declining”. In general, “everything will go up”. Coal and oil will grow slower than previously natural gas and renewable energy sources are faster. It looks like the “Central Scenario of Renewable Energy Sources”.
In the steady development scenario, almost complete decarbonization of the electricity sector is projected. 60% of electricity is generated from renewable energy sources and 15% by nuclear energy. At the same time, the total solar power plant in the world in 2040 will make up 3250 GW. The IEA notes that in order to implement a sustainable development scenario, it will be necessary to increase the investment of relevant energy technologies only by 15%.